Modeling Transportation Logistics Systems in Post-Conflict Zones

This book presents an integrative research methodology designed to support economic recovery and sustainable development in post-conflict regions, with a focus on Iraq. It addresses the critical question of how transportation logistics systems—and the regions they serve—can be made economically viable, resilient, and sustainable in the aftermath of armed conflict. The methodology unfolds in distinct but interconnected stages. The first stage provides a comprehensive overview of the Iraqi economy and its transportation infrastructure, supported by a robust database of transportation, economic, and demographic indicators. In the second stage, the post-ISIS state of Iraq’s transportation system is assessed in depth. This includes a detailed analysis of logistics operations, recent infrastructure investments, and projections for future development. A key component of this stage is an expert elicitation process involving 20 stakeholder groups to identify investment priorities and stakeholder dynamics. In the methodology’s third stage, alternative approaches to modeling interdependent dynamic decision-making in transportation logistics systems are presented and illustrated. These approaches include a) formulating and solving stochastic multiple-optimization problems with equilibrium constraints involving risk-averse players, b) differential spatial price equilibrium modeling in continuous time, and c) recursive dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium modeling. The methodology also includes an elaboration and illustration of the notion of ‘prosilience,’ or the act of engaging in anticipatory contingency planning to promote the resilience of transport logistics systems to future threats. Combining theoretical insight with practical application, this book offers a valuable framework for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners working to rebuild and strengthen transportation systems in fragile and conflict-affected settings.