Ladders of Escalation

This Brief provides a detailed exploration of a modified “escalation ladders” model as applied to state-sponsored targeted killings in the post-Cold War political landscape. Using a modified version of Herman Kahn's "ladders of escalation," the authors offer a systematic comparison of the components and features of multiple state-sponsored killing programs. The Brief begins with a historical overview of the creation of escalations ladders in the 1950s and 1960s, their original applications in conflicts between nuclear superpowers, and their discontinuation in the wake of the end of the Cold War. The second part illustrates how the modified Ladders of Escalation model can be utilized in various national intelligence agencies, through international case studies: Russia, Israel, the United States, India, and France. In the third section, the authors draw parallels between the models, ending with further discussion on how Ladders of Escalation can support, or even improve, current intelligence practices. Providing a new and valuable theoretical framework for analyzing political violence, this Brief will be of interest to scholars and students of international relations, critical security studies, intelligence studies, as well as intelligence professionals and human rights practitioners.